Prescient?

Emails I Wrote.

 

This one is from October 7, 2008.

 

Today's news.

 

This is the GE bailout, as predicted.

It will probably not be enough for

future pain, so don't buy just yet.

 

The inevitable day of reckoning is

when Immelt gets on CNBC, because…

frankly… in the end, ain't that the way

the Catholic world works? Misdeed,

Acknowledgement, Confessional…

etc.    (I hate this.)

 

As to the "GS Bailout", you will

never hear that one actually

announced, but it is happening

very much behind the scenes.

 

Goldman will have to take pain…

not be able to collect on all $50B

of their winning bets, but will

collect enough to make them whole

on their $30B of losers.  And maybe

yield an excess $5B or so over 2 years

on the wins versus losses.  Still, GS

is a place that will be in business in

5 years… maybe stock at $60, maybe

stock at $160… but when it gets in

the 80-90 ranges, it's worth the bet

so check the thesis if it gets there.